If there’s one headline making waves in the aviation industry today, it’s the sobering reminder that our journey toward cleaner skies is slower and more challenging than most of us had hoped. A landmark Reuters investigation revealed that despite over 160 promising sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) projects announced in the last 12 years, only a handful have actually come to fruition. That gap, between big promises and small proof, is rattling the credibility of the entire effort.
Where We’re Falling Short
SAF is intended to be aviation’s eco-anchor. It’s clean, renewable, and Earth-friendly (or at least, that’s the goal). But here’s the blunt truth:
- Probability vs. Reality: Over 160 announced projects look great on paper, but very few have scaled up for mainstream production.
- Cost Gap: SAF remains prohibitively expensive (three to five times the price of traditional jet fuel). That gap isn’t just big, it’s gigantic. Even IATA’s leadership acknowledges there’s just not enough airline demand at those price points.
Why This Matters
It’s one thing to dish out ambitious emissions targets. Heck, everyone wants to be the “green” airline these days. But investors, regulators, and, yes, passengers are starting to see through the rhetoric. Here’s why that matters:
- Green Credibility: Airlines are pledging net-zero by 2050, but without SAF scaling, it’s all just numbers on a press release.
- Regulatory Pressure Looms: The EU is advancing SAF mandates. The U.S.? Not so much. That split puts pressure on airlines to strategize differently depending on where they fly.
- Cost to Consumers: We’ve seen airfare spikes linked to SAF and aircraft delays in other contexts. These supply chain constraints don’t end at the airport gates.
What’s the Way Forward?
1. Scale Production
Even big names like IATA warn we need to ramp up SAF yesterday. Doubling output, but only to 2 million tonnes by 2025, is still just 0.7% of airline fuel consumption. That’s not even a rounding error. We need investment, policy incentives, and cohesive strategies across public and private sectors.
2. Innovate Fundraising & Tech
The cost barrier remains. Tech breakthroughs like next-gen fuel conversion processes or novel funding models (think green bonds, carbon credits) could tip the scale. But credibility is key as offsets are under scrutiny for greenwashing.
3. ACO (All-Of-The-Above)
It’s not just SAF. Advances in electric or hydrogen propulsion, AI-optimized routes, sustainable aircraft design- they all build toward decarbonization. SAF shouldn’t be the only arrow in the industry’s sustainability quiver.
Hope Won’t Fly On Its Own
There’s a certain defensiveness in today’s headlines- like SAF has failed aviation. But let’s be frank: no one expected this to be easy. The technology, policy, and infrastructure hurdles are steep, but not insurmountable.
The real threat here is complacency. If airlines, fuel producers, and governments say “we tried” without meaningful action, that’s failure. What’s needed now is leadership with funding, urgency, and pragmatism.
Yes, the industry is behind. But no, it’s not lost. The strides toward sustainability are still coming and SAF, when it finally scales, can still deliver the kind of leap-change the planet demands.
